Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Tyler Cowen 100%In testa tra 28 esiti
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto27 gen 25, 00:54 UTC31 dic 30, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Please add answers!
- The term AGI is ambiguous and subjective.
- I want to try to figure out timelines by when prominent people in AI subjectively think we have achieved it.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Each person resolves YES if by EOY 2030, they state publicly that they believe AGI has been achieved.
- This need not refer to any AI system they are working on themselves, but any AI system in the world.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Tyler Cowen al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Please add answers!