Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeLanyue 37%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto20 giu 25, 02:51 UTC31 dic 30, 02:47 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsWho will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the crewed lunar lander that successfully transports astronauts from lunar orbit to the Moon's surface, as confirmed by an official space agency or government announcement.
- the named outcome: Developed by SpaceX under NASA's Artemis program, the named outcome is slated for the Artemis III mission, aiming for the first crewed lunar landing since 1972.
- An uncrewed test flight is planned for 2025, with the crewed mission expected no earlier than mid-2027.
- (en.wikipedia.org)
- Blue Moon HLS: Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander is contracted for the Artemis V mission, targeting a crewed lunar landing.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon??
- Manifold Markets quota Lanyue al 37% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon??
- Which crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Which crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria