Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
CinaOne-OffTecnologiaSpazio9a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 11:49 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 59%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto18 dic 25, 03:26 UTC31 dic 35, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsWill CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China complete a successful manned mission to the lunar surface by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsArtemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill SpaceX be nationalized by EoY 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China lands humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface.
- This market resolves NO if the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface before China lands humans on the Moon.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) and NASA confirming successful crewed lunar landings.
- A successful landing requires astronauts to reach the lunar surface and return safely to Earth.
- China has announced a preliminary plan to land two astronauts on the Moon by 2030, with an uncrewed Mengzhou-Lanyue mission planned for 2028 or 2029, ahead of the full crewed mission to the lunar surface in 2030.
