Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
OpenAI 39.5%+22.7ptIn testa tra 20 esiti
Previsori
95
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+22.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
7 dic 22, 19:13 UTC1 gen 36, 03:59 UTC
Trend
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill the Boring Company create 1,000,000 miles of tunnels before 2050?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 156,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 altri esiti
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which company will create AGI first??
- Manifold Markets quota OpenAI al 40% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which company will create AGI first??
- Which company will create AGI first? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2036.
- Come viene liquidato Which company will create AGI first??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A