Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 23 lug 2026, 21:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Previsione della comunità attualeCommercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030 30.4%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 giorni fa
Obsoleto6 feb 26, 13:5231 gen 30, 23:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Location Verification for US Export Controls by 2028: The US enacts location verification requirements for exported chips before 2028 (enforcement may not begin until afterward)8%
Trend del volume
$3222 lug2g di dati23 lug
Mercati Correlati
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
0 €December 31: 10%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
751,7 €Sì: 75%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
0 €Sì: 14%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
0 €10% or above: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
0 €10% or above: 0%KALSHI
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
0 €10% or above: 79%KALSHI
KALSHIAttivi in questi argomenti
Notizie Correlate
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRegole
More context for these scenarios is provided in this article on the Forecasting AI Futures blog.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Resolution Criteria
- Each answer resolves YES if the specified governance scenario occurs by the stated deadline, and NO otherwise.
- Several scenarios can come true, and I'll use my best judgement to resolve each one.
- Location Verification for US Export Controls: Resolves YES if the US requires location verification for exported AI chips before 2028.