Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeLater than 2032 58.2%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+8.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto21 lug 25, 00:54 UTC21 gen 33, 00:44 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
KalshiSpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the earliest year in which a SpaceX Starship successfully lands on the Martian surface.
- A successful landing is defined as a Starship spacecraft touching down on Mars without catastrophic failure, as confirmed by official SpaceX communications or reputable news outlets.
- If no such landing occurs by the end of 2032, the market will resolve to "the named outcome." If SpaceX announces the cancellation of the Starship Mars program, the market will resolve to "Never."
- Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has outlined ambitious plans for Mars exploration using the Starship spacecraft.
- In September 2024, Musk announced intentions to launch uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in 2026, aiming to test landing capabilities.
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt94%
- Yes-1.2pt6%
- Volume totale
- 19,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 263K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-12.0pt49%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+6.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 7 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Volume totale
- 13K €
- Volume 24h
- 8,1K €
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.1pt62.6%
- 8–11B+6.7pt10.1%
- 11–14B-0.1pt8.1%
+5 altri esiti
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Starship land on Mars??
- Manifold Markets quota Later than 2032 al 58% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Starship land on Mars??
- When will Starship land on Mars? dovrebbe risolversi il 21 gennaio 2033.
- Come viene liquidato When will Starship land on Mars??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria