Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNot before 2027 97%In testa tra 14 esiti
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto16 ott 23, 07:49 UTC31 dic 26, 13:29 UTC
Trend
0.3%
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0.2%
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0.2%
0.1%
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsManifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027
Manifold MarketsLife360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSpotify monthly active users in Q3
KalshiMercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3
KalshiRegole
other = before 2024
- Will look at the stat page.
- If it reads 100k, resolves to the relevant bucket.
- I don't plan on doing detective work if it's manipulated.
- Having said that, if a considerable amount of traffic is fraudulent (e.g., 20%) I will possibly delay resolution to make necessary adjustments for blatant-bulk-manipulation.
- I'm not excluding alts, 10 person bot farms, whatever
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders??
- Manifold Markets quota Not before 2027 al 97% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders??
- When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: other = before 2024