Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2037 82.8%In testa tra 12 esiti
Previsori
72
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-2.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto30 ago 25, 01:51 UTC22 gen 36, 00:37 UTC
Trend
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiRegole
This is a cumulative probability market.
- Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" resolve NO, and "the named outcome", "the named outcome", etc. will all resolve YES.
- Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died.
- For example, "the named outcome" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun.
- There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
Mercati aperti
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume totale
- 24,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7K €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3K €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Donald Trump die??
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2037 al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Donald Trump die??
- When will Donald Trump die? dovrebbe risolversi il 22 gennaio 2036.
- Come viene liquidato When will Donald Trump die??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This is a cumulative probability market.