Donald Trump morirà o si ammalerà gravemente prima della fine del suo mandato?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 24 ott 2026, 16:35 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 84.7%
Previsori
978
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 29 minuti fa
12 nov 24, 19:10 UTC19 gen 29, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die during his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRegole
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- I won’t be betting on this market.
- Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.
- The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
