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Dati al 24 ott 2026, 05:55 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeJoe Biden 40%
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto18 giu 24, 13:00 UTC19 gen 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
Manifold MarketsWill Larry Ellison die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Aella die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Johnson die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
PolymarketWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old.
- This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes.
- The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already.
- What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
- This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first.
