When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
Middle EastGeopoliticaPolitica6mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 40.7%In testa tra 8 esiti
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12
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
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Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto9 mar 26, 16:17 UTC9 mar 27, 16:14 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.
- His son has succeeded him.
- If he should die or step down, who will end up replacing him? Have added five options, including a “no one = regime change” option that covers a scenario of regime collapse after his death / resignation.
- Resolving yes for an option will happen when the Assembly of Experts announces a new leader, and/or this person acknowledges and accepts the title, and/or there is a clear formal ceremony or swearing in event, and/or someone emerges and is clearly referred to as the Supreme Leader by other senior clerics and significant political figures.
- If the regime collapses and no supreme leader replaces Khamenei 2, then will resolve to that option.
- If there is a power-sharing or ongoing interim rule situation, this option will resolve “yes” after 1 year of there being no new Supreme Leader.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader??
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 41% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader??
- When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader? dovrebbe risolversi il 9 marzo 2027.
- Come viene liquidato When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: 85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.