Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 11:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%In testa tra 11 esiti
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto11 nov 24, 23:53 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9 @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt (this market) @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8
- @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ @/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o