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In ritardo11 lug 25, 13:16 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Will any state-of-the-art (SOTA) general-purpose AI system at the end of 2026 be a reasoning model?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve YES if, on December 31, 2026, any AI system widely considered SOTA meets all of the following criteria for a "reasoning model":
- It is a Language Model - The system must be able to input and output language.
- As an example of what would not count: AlphaGo
- It uses inference-time compute - The system must be capable of using more than a single forward pass before giving its final output, with the ability to scale inference compute for better performance
