What will be the highest reported Remote Labor Index (RLI) AI automation rate by the end of each of the following years?
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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2032 86.6%In testa tra 7 esiti
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The Remote Labor Index (RLI) is a benchmark of 240 long-horizon remote labor tasks, collected as a representative sample of fully-remote labor performed by freelancers.
- Tasks in the dataset take human professionals between several hours to several hundred hours (see figures from the paper below).
- Though most of the benchmark is private, the creators will occasionally report model performance on the benchmark as evaluated by themselves and/or model providers.
- At the end of each listed year, I will resolve to the highest reported RLI automation rate (fraction of tasks completed) of an AI model that year.
- The current best evaluated model as of October 2025 is Manus, at a 2.5% automation rate.
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