Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualePuberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria 75%In testa tra 12 esiti
Previsori
27
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto17 set 25, 06:06 UTC1 gen 27, 06:41 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter
Manifold MarketsWhich method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market (https://manifold.markets/Marnix/what-was-the-political-lean-of-the) has a very active and spirited discussion of whether Kirk's murderer was on the left or the right in general.
- But, since he was described as having been "very political" in recent years, I have decided to make a market about his opinions on a number of specific issues which tend to divide the United States electorate.
- As of market creation, I would resolve most of these N/A! I will give disproportionate weight to statements made in the past year.
- I'm setting the close date as 12/31/25, but I will very likely adjust it to coincide with the end of his trial, because I would guess most of the relevant information will come out before then.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been updated to 12/31/26 (previously 12/31/25).
- The actual close will be adjusted to coincide with the end of the shooter's trial, as most relevant information is expected to come out during the trial proceedings.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What political positions did Charlie Kirk's shooter support??
- Manifold Markets quota Puberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What political positions did Charlie Kirk's shooter support??
- What political positions did Charlie Kirk's shooter support? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato What political positions did Charlie Kirk's shooter support??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market (https://manifold.markets/Marnix/what-was-the-political-lean-of-the) has a very active and spirited discussion of whether Kirk's murderer was on the left or the right in general.