Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNorth Korea 34.4%In testa tra 16 esiti
Previsori
44
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto4 ott 22, 02:52 UTC1 gen 70, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsIf North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill Vladimir Putin and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated.
- (Including tests and civilian uses.)
- The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
- For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by the named outcome.
- the named outcome is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests
