Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029?

Manifold Markets quota No al 87.5% al 31 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029?

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029 dovrebbe risolversi il 21 gennaio 2029.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 87.5%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 6 ore fa

Obsoleto

4 gen 25, 19:50 UTC21 gen 29, 00:00 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This market resolves YES if there is a direct military engagement between the armed forces of the United States and Mexico before January 20, 2029.

Resolution criteria:
Must involve official government forces (ex. uniformed military, national guard, or police acting in an official capacity, not private militias or individuals)
Must include exchange of fire or direct combat operations
Must result in the creation of a wikipedia page, with a table indicating at least 10 total casualties or losses and with the USA and Mexico as belligerents on opposing sides, and that page must remain up for at least a week.
(ex. this page)