Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.8%
Previsori
427
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto31 mar 25, 23:44 UTC21 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
PolymarketTrump tries to fire Lisa Cook by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill Trump participate in an election for a third term?
Manifold MarketsWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms.
- This includes but is the not limited to:
- Filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for a third term
- Pursuing legal challenges to the 22nd Amendment
- Attempting to assume the presidency through other means (such as becoming Vice President and then assuming the presidency)
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 615,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 730,5K €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Volume totale
- 29,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 643,3K €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 altri esiti
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 altri esiti
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 14,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Volume totale
- 19,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 483,5K €
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- What will Trump say this week?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Trump tries to serve a third term??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 81% al 19 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Trump tries to serve a third term??
- Trump tries to serve a third term? dovrebbe risolversi il 21 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Trump tries to serve a third term??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria