Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
IAMaterie prime
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale>= 25 years 41.6%In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto26 giu 23, 18:52 UTC1 gen 00, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
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KalshiRegole
This market concerns about two events * A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
- * B: When will AI complete the IMO grand challenge, by getting gold on the international mathematics olympiad producing machine-checkable proofs, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-imo-grand-challenge-be-com
- This market asks what the duration of time is after event A and before event B. This market resolves to the shortest correct answer.
- For example if it takes 2 months, it will resolve to "< 4 months", because that answer mentions a shorter time frame than the answer "< 1 year".
- If events A and B happen at the same time, or if B happens before A (which should not happen), then this resolves "< 1 week".
- It will resolve to ">= 25 years" if event B has not happened 25 years after event A happened.