Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
IAMaterie prime
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 11:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale>= 25 years 41.6%In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto26 giu 23, 18:52 UTC1 gen 00, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
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Manifold MarketsWill the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketHow low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price get in 2026?
KalshiRegole
This market concerns about two events * A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
- * B: When will AI complete the IMO grand challenge, by getting gold on the international mathematics olympiad producing machine-checkable proofs, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-imo-grand-challenge-be-com
- This market asks what the duration of time is after event A and before event B. This market resolves to the shortest correct answer.
- For example if it takes 2 months, it will resolve to "< 4 months", because that answer mentions a shorter time frame than the answer "< 1 year".
- If events A and B happen at the same time, or if B happens before A (which should not happen), then this resolves "< 1 week".
- It will resolve to ">= 25 years" if event B has not happened 25 years after event A happened.