Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 10:30 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualenot by 2032 38.7%In testa tra 11 esiti
Previsori
28
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto25 giu 23, 19:00 UTC1 gen 33, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsWill a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/
- I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC).
- Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.
- This resolves "the named outcome" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032.
- It will also resolve "the named outcome" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.