Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed??

Manifold Markets quota not by 2032 al 38.7% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed??

What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2033.

One-OffIA6a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

not by 2032 38.7%

In testa tra 11 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 2 ore fa

Obsoleto

25 giu 23, 19:00 UTC1 gen 33, 22:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.

This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/
I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC).
Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.
This resolves "the named outcome" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032.
It will also resolve "the named outcome" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.