Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto9 set 24, 08:01 UTC30 mar 29, 15:59 UTC
Trend
0.4%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
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PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRegole
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.