SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
One-OffIACinaTecnologiaGeopoliticaManifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes (93%)
Risolto: 11 ott 2026, 21:09
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 13 ott 2026, 12:32 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes93%
No7%
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
