Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 58% al 30 settembre 2026.

Quando si risolve Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029??

Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.

Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?

IAOne-Off2a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 58%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 9 ore fa

Obsoleto

22 ott 25, 21:06 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Mercati Correlati

Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

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Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

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Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Polymarket

Gemini 4.0 released by which date?

Polymarket

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Regole

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.

This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude.
This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.

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Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?

IAOne-Off2a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 58%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 9 ore fa

Obsoleto

22 ott 25, 21:06 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Mercati Correlati

Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Manifold Markets

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

Manifold Markets

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Manifold Markets

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Polymarket

Gemini 4.0 released by which date?

Polymarket

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Regole

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.

This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude.
This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.