Quali sono le probabilità attuali per SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030?

Manifold Markets quota No al 95.2% al 20 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030?

SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.

MiningOne-Off3a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 95.2%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 56 minuti fa

In ritardo

10 dic 24, 14:59 UTC31 dic 29, 00:00 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This market resolves YES if a quantum computer successfully breaks SHA-256 encryption before January 1, 2030.

Resolution will be based on peer-reviewed research papers or official announcements from major quantum computing companies/research institutions confirming a successful break of SHA-256.
Resolution criteria:
Must be a verified, reproducible break of the full SHA-256 algorithm
Must be practically demonstrated, not just theoretical
Must be confirmed by multiple independent sources in the cryptography community