Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ??

Manifold Markets quota No al 89.1% al 20 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ??

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 89.1%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 19 minuti fa

15 ott 26, 17:34 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before December 31 at 11:59 PM UTC, a confirmed security advisory, peer-reviewed publication, or public proof-of-concept demonstrates that an AI system or AI-derived mathematical algorithm has broken a core cryptographic primitive or consensus mechanism of a major public blockchain (e.g., Bitcoin or Ethereum).
To resolve to YES, the event must satisfy at least one of the following criteria:
Private Key Recovery: A practical method derived via AI that allows recovering a private key from an exposed public key for standard signature schemes (e.g., ECDSA or Schnorr) using available classical hardware.
Hash Function Break: A viable preimage or collision attack against hash functions used by major chains (e.g., SHA-256 or Keccak-256) enabled by AI mathematical breakthroughs.
Consensus Break: A functional protocol-level attack generated or executed via AI that breaks double-spend protection or block validation on a top-20 cryptocurrency network without acquiring majority hash power or stake.