Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
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Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
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Obsoleto25 set 23, 20:23 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
I was involved in a pretty interesting discussion about quantum computing and the risks posed to encryption algorithms recently and thought this might make for a fun market on here, since the opinions presented by the various parties in said discussion varied quite markedly.
- Even in doing some cursory research for materials to post here in this question description, the headlines of articles written on this exact topic (2048 bit RSA) being broken by quantum computers seem to be all over the place, whether the piece was written almost a decade ago or just this year.
- So, the question is: WILL A QUANTUM COMPUTER BE ABLE TO PROVABLY BREAK 2048 BIT RSA ENCRYPTION BY 2030?
- In order to resolve, it must be proven possible to use quantum computing to successfully 'break' RSA 2048 bit...this could be done by taking a known existing 2048 bit public key that was already published and available, and using their algorithm to factorize the public key and determine the corresponding private key.
- This could be verified by utilizing the found private key to decrypt messages signed with the public key.
- "By 2030" means until December 31st, 2029 11:59:59 UTC
