Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
TecnologiaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 83.2%
Previsori
46
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto25 set 23, 20:23 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold Marketswill i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
I was involved in a pretty interesting discussion about quantum computing and the risks posed to encryption algorithms recently and thought this might make for a fun market on here, since the opinions presented by the various parties in said discussion varied quite markedly.
- Even in doing some cursory research for materials to post here in this question description, the headlines of articles written on this exact topic (2048 bit RSA) being broken by quantum computers seem to be all over the place, whether the piece was written almost a decade ago or just this year.
- So, the question is: WILL A QUANTUM COMPUTER BE ABLE TO PROVABLY BREAK 2048 BIT RSA ENCRYPTION BY 2030?
- In order to resolve, it must be proven possible to use quantum computing to successfully 'break' RSA 2048 bit...this could be done by taking a known existing 2048 bit public key that was already published and available, and using their algorithm to factorize the public key and determine the corresponding private key.
- This could be verified by utilizing the found private key to decrypt messages signed with the public key.
- "By 2030" means until December 31st, 2029 11:59:59 UTC
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6K €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume totale
- 736,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030??
- Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I was involved in a pretty interesting discussion about quantum computing and the risks posed to encryption algorithms recently and thought this might make for a fun market on here, since the opinions presented by the various parties in said discussion varied quite markedly.