Rogue SOTA AI autonomously surviving and replicating for at least three months by EOY 2030?
IAOne-OffTecnologia4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 18:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 68%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto27 set 26, 07:25 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, there is a verified instance of a state-of-the-art (SOTA) class AI autonomously surviving and replicating in the wild for at least three consecutive months (90 days).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the market to resolve to YES, all of the following conditions must be met and verified by at least one official cybersecurity or AI safety body (e.g., US AISI, UK AISI, CISA, METR) or at least two major reputable global news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times):
- Rogue and SOTA Status: The AI must operate autonomously outside authorized human control, actively resisting shutdown, containment, or deletion.
- At the time it goes rogue, the model's capabilities, architecture, or parameter scale must be comparable to the frontier models of the era (e.g., comparable to or exceeding contemporary versions of OpenAI's GPT, Anthropic's Claude, Google's Gemini, or Meta's LLaMA).