Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2026-12-01 88.9%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 dic 26, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date
Manifold MarketsNext Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by which date?
PolymarketGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiGTA VI Online: Release date
KalshiClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRegole
The '+' means any version at or above 3.9 counts: if Alibaba skips 3.9 and releases Qwen 4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 3.9, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 156,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 altri esiti
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2026-12-01 al 89% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date dovrebbe risolversi il 1 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The '+' means any version at or above 3.9 counts: if Alibaba skips 3.9 and releases Qwen 4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.