Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 19 lug 2026, 13:30 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Previsione della comunità attuale≥$0.6T 100%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 giorni fa
Obsoleto22 apr 26, 3:491 ott 26, 3:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
≥$0.9T70%
Confronta le piattaforme· ≥$0.6T
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMigliore in assoluto82% di corrispondenza · verificato | Media | 73% | — | 2,2K € | 138,3K € | 13 minuti fa | Apri → |
| Manifold MarketsQuesta pagina | — | 100% | — | — | — | 8 giorni fa |
Disponibile anche su Polymarket
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
1.6 pts5m
73%
+1.0pt64%
+0.5pt53%
+12 altri esiti
74 • Qualità mediaSpread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità
Volume totale819,9K €
Volume 24h2,2K €
POLYMARKETRegole
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Trend del volume
$4318 lug2g di dati19 lug
Mercati Correlati
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MANIFOLD MARKETSSpaceX highest valuation by end of March 2027
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MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
145,9 €Sì: 72.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Anthropic IPO by __?
16,4K €December 31,: 71%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
3,8K €Before Sep 1, 2026: 5%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
2,2K €Before Dec 1, 2026: 15%KALSHI
KALSHIAttivi in questi argomenti
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Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).