NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026
QuarterlyTecnologiaIABusiness e aziende2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 73.4%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
19 mag 25, 12:12 UTC1 gen 27, 10:47 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?
Manifold MarketsWill Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2027?
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PolymarketWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic IPO?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Hinge #1 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- "If by the fourth quarter of 2026 NVIDIA’s datacent[er] revenue and the combined AI capital expenditures of Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc have doubled year‑over‑year, the hardware curve is still exponential and the short camp scores a point.
- If they have not, the long camp’s “curve‑bend” story gains credibility."
- The other bets:
- #2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1