Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 94.2%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto10 set 24, 05:42 UTC17 set 29, 20:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AI be better at Captcha than an average human
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.
- However, Oliver Habryka and Gwern raised concerns about data contamination.
- If a reliable (according to me) test is performed, will FiveThirtyNine be found to outperform Metaculus?
- If all concerns with the current test will be convincingly debunked, the market will resolve YES.
- If a new test will involve Metaculus forecasts that contain similar AI in the aggregate, it will not be sufficient for a NO resolution.
- If no such test is performed by closing date, it will resolve MKT.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus??
- Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? dovrebbe risolversi il 17 settembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.