Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2028 20.2%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto22 nov 25, 20:48 UTC22 nov 30, 20:46 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiRegole
Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.
- Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when AI can solve any image recognition CAPTCHA better than humans, where "very hard to recognize" means designed to be hard for machines to recognize (not just arbitrary tasks that happen to be easier for LLMs than humans).
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human?
- Manifold Markets quota 2028 al 20% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human?
- When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human dovrebbe risolversi il 22 novembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.