Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is Epstein-Barr virus a causative factor in multiple sclerosis??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 93.9% al 24 ottobre 2026.

Come viene liquidato Is Epstein-Barr virus a causative factor in multiple sclerosis??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolve to scientific consensus whenever that is reached.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 93.9%

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Tipo di domanda

binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 46 minuti fa

In ritardo

14 giu 23, 01:38 UTC11 ott 90, 06:59 UTC

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Resolve to scientific consensus whenever that is reached.

Will resolve conservatively (i.e. lean towards leaving it open for another year).
Note that, from trevorklee, "More importantly, however, we don’t know the rest of the factors that contribute to MS. 90% of adults in the US have had EBV, while only 0.3% of adults have MS.
There must be other factors that make those 0.3% get MS while the other 89.7% do not, but it’s unclear what they are."
so this resolves YES if EBV causes the risk of getting MS if you have had EBV to be much higher than without EBV and NO otherwise
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj8222