Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeDec 31 14%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-1.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
10 mar 26, 01:01 UTC1 gen 27, 00:58 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Iran leadership change by which date?
PolymarketWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWas the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 23%
- Disponibile anche su Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 28%
Mercati aperti
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+10.5pt66%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 500,6K €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 9,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt50.4%
- October 31-3.0pt27.8%
- September 30+1.0pt12.2%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 56,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 190,8K €
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+5.5pt22%
- October 31+9.0pt18%
- September 30+3.9pt7%
+9 altri esiti
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Iran leadership change by which date??
- Manifold Markets quota Dec 31 al 14% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Iran leadership change by which date??
- Iran leadership change by which date? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Iran leadership change by which date??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Dove altro è quotato Iran leadership change by which date??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Futuur, Polymarket.