Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 30 ott 2026, 00:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeDec 31 14.8%+0.4ptIn testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+1.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto10 mar 26, 01:01 UTC1 gen 27, 00:58 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Iran leadership change by which date?
PolymarketWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 20%
- Disponibile anche su Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 30%
