In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
17.8 pt (24h)IAOne-Off6aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2026 97.8%+17.8ptIn testa tra 8 esiti
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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+17.8 pts
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Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
6 lug 25, 10:341 gen 33, 23:59
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SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 457,4K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 8,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 altri esiti
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 149,2K €
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605K €
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- Manifold Markets quota 2026 al 98% al 4 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2033.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.