Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Helped with >80% confidence 64.1%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto30 mar 23, 02:17 UTC1 gen 31, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 87,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 228,5K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 239,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 53,3K €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- Manifold Markets quota Helped with >80% confidence al 64% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/