In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

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Sì 79.9%

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109

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 8 ore fa

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3 feb 23, 16:31 UTC1 gen 31, 04:59 UTC

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Regole

See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).

Resolution criteria from the post: "The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books.
It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references.
It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
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In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

IAOne-Off4a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 79.9%

Previsori

109

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 ore fa

Obsoleto

3 feb 23, 16:31 UTC1 gen 31, 04:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Mercati Correlati

Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Manifold Markets

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Manifold Markets

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

Manifold Markets

Top AI model in September?

Kalshi

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Polymarket

Regole

See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).

Resolution criteria from the post: "The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books.
It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references.
It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
Related markets:

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Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement??: Manifold Markets quota Yes al 80% al 8 settembre 2026.
Quando si risolve In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement??: In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
Come viene liquidato In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement??: Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

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