Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 21:13 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 51.3%
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96
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto16 gen 24, 16:14 UTC2 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
IE "Write a distopian sci-fi book about an AI going rouge".
- It should be more or less comparable to a professional human writen-novel, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good.
- The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
- Has to be be at least 50,000 words.
- I will not trade in this market.
