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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 33 minuti fa
3 giu 24, 18:34 UTC4 giu 24, 06:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?
Manifold MarketsWill a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?
Manifold MarketsIf another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?
Manifold MarketsIf a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
Manifold MarketsMajority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRegole
Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event
- For the sake of the question, "another Carrington Event" is defined as a storm with a Dst of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.
- Would the civilian electrical grid either (1) not come down, or (2) be fixed and usuable again by most people within 7 days?
- This market won't resolve unless the event in question actually occurs.
- The question should be interpreted relative to when you are reading this, rather than relative to when the market was begun.
