Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 69.7% al 23 ottobre 2026.

Come viene liquidato If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 69.7%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 10 ore fa

Obsoleto

12 giu 24, 20:44 UTC2 gen 50, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event

For the sake of the question, "another Carrington Event" is defined as a storm with a Dst of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.
Resolution criteria (provisional):
If I'm ever able to resolve this market after another Carrington Event happens, then this market will be resolved YES as soon as that happens.
Otherwise, this market won't resolve until there's a clear consensus about what the hypothetical result would be in the case of another Carrington Event (currently there isn't, as far as I'm aware).
In that case, at least one Manifold poll with a majority vote would have to pass before me deciding to resolve this market.