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  1. Mercati Predittivi
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  3. Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?

Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?

IAOne-OffIntrattenimentoMusic7a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Sam Altman
Sam Altman 80%
In testa tra 16 esiti
Previsori

15

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 giorni fa

Obsoleto
5 ott 24, 4:152 gen 34, 7:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Sam Altman80%

Regole

This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.

Manifold Markets
  • For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
  • If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
  • If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
  • A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
  • A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.

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Regole

This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.

Manifold Markets
  • For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
  • If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
  • If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
  • A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
  • A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.