Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95%
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19
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto5 set 25, 19:24 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by which date?
PolymarketWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRegole
The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.
- By "substantially eliminated" I mean that over 90% of Hezbollah's weapons have been either destroyed, confiscated, or voluntary relinquished to the Lebanese government by the close date, and the group no longer poses a military threat to the State of Lebanon or credibly resist the Lebanese armed forces.
- I will make this determination by studying mainstream news sources (e.g., NYT, CNN) for information regarding Hezbollah's weapons.
- 1) If there is ongoing armed conflict between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on the close date, the market will resolve NO, unless that armed conflict is at the "mopping up" phase by the LAF.
- 2) If some weapons have been relinquished but there is a dispute as to whether a substantial amount remains hidden in Hezbollah's arsenal, I will base my analysis on whether Hezbollah still appears to act as if it is an organization with a substantial military wing.
- For example, if there is still some terroritory that the LAF declines to enter due to it being a Hezbollah stronghold, that would strongly indicate that Hezbollah still has some weaponry and likely be considered a NO.
Mercati aperti
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 23,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 312,6K €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume totale
- 6,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 153,3K €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.