Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: No (89.8%)
Risolto: 18 ott 2026, 04:17
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CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Esito Vincente
No
A 7 giorni
—
A 24 ore
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Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 18 ott 2026, 21:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes10.2%
No89.8%
Vinta
Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegole
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime
- Resolves very subjectivly; don't bet if you don't trust my judgement.
- Physical reasoning includes things like driving cars, cleaning houses, and other use-cases that involve understanding directions and distances in the real world and manipulating physical objects.
- Psychological reasoning includes things like understanding human thoughts and ideas, making art and mathematical discoveries, writing computer programs, etc. This market resolves once it seems that AI's mastery of one of those domains has radically improved over the status quo in January of 2023.
- For example if before we reach AGI we get self-driving cars that are radically safer than humans in all situations, this will probably resolve YES.
