Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?
One-OffPolitica USAElezionePoliticaTecnologiaElezioni di metà mandato USA 20268g
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 99%
Previsori
56
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto10 giu 25, 01:00 UTC5 nov 26, 00:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will John Fetterman Leave the Democratic Party Before the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketGoogle AI Pro/Ultra usable in third party apps before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tucker Carlson form a third party?
KalshiWill Musk-backed third-party candidate(s) win any seats in Congress by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%).
- This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.
- For the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.