Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
GeopoliticaOne-OffHealth & MedicineSpaceWeatherManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeIndifferent (to humans) AI 37.6%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto22 ago 26, 20:36 UTC31 dic 50, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
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Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible??
- Manifold Markets quota Indifferent (to humans) AI al 38% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible??
- Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2050.
- Come viene liquidato Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria