Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeHuman misuse of AI 32.3%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto22 ago 26, 20:36 UTC31 dic 50, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.
