Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / Ucraina2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 86.4%
Previsori
51
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto21 dic 22, 23:21 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?
Manifold MarketsAt least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketRegole
This market resolves:
- YES - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had NOT used tactical nor strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day, and not uses them for at least 4 weeks after that day.
- NO - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had used tactical or strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day or within 4 weeks after that day.
- N/A - If the war ends before Crimea is liberated by Ukranian forces, including the case where Crimea is returned to Ukraine as part of a peace deal.
- The intention to estimate whether Russia is likely to use nukes to prevent loosing Crimea.
- Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 am