Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 02:41 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 93.8%
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18
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto7 dic 25, 01:12 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
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Manifold MarketsRegole
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
- Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
- Detonation here means nuclear explosion.
- If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
- If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.
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