Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 92.7%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto7 dic 25, 16:03 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
- Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
- Detonation here means nuclear explosion.
- If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
- If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.
- Previous similar markets:
