Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 64.4%
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14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 49 minuti fa
In ritardo21 lug 25, 20:16 UTC2 gen 45, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
Manifold MarketsWill Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketIn 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Copying from Caplan's blog post:
- Holden wins $5000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible — according to Bryan Caplan — that at least one of the following was true:
- Real Gross World Product was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at least 4x the real GWP of 2024.
- Or: real GWP was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024.
- Otherwise, Bryan wins $1000.
