Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 83.4%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto22 mar 26, 20:30 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will LLMs be able to translate the Food Tongue conlang?
Manifold MarketsWhen will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?
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KalshiRegole
Resolves yes if before 2027 an LLM can play video games that require real-time reactions with some competence.
- To avoid subjectivity, I will impose the following standards:
- The LLM must first navigate to playsnake.org and select worm
- The LLM must be able to achieve a median score of at least 50 across 5 consecutive runs.
- The LLM can try as many times as it likes as long as it hits this benchmark eventually
- I'm not paying more than $20 per month for an AI subscription, so models requiring this will not be tested unless somebody does it for me.
